As the US moves towards the possibility of easing sanctions on Russia, Europe faces a daunting challenge in maintaining its stance. For years, the EU has worked alongside the US to impose sanctions that have targeted Russia’s economy in an attempt to curb its aggressive actions. But if the US takes a step back, Europe would be left grappling with the task of holding its ground.  

While some EU leaders might argue that Europe should go its own way in terms of sanctions, the absence of a coordinated effort could lead to Russia benefiting from the division. The real danger lies in the potential divisions within the EU itself. Countries with strong economic ties to the US, or those like Hungary that have expressed more skepticism about sanctions on Russia [6], might resist the continued imposition of sanctions, prioritizing their own economic interests over the EU’s collective approach. Some may see this shift as an opportunity to reconsider their stance on EU sanctions, creating further challenges for maintaining a unified position. This could spark a dangerous fragmentation of the EU, undermining its unified front in Russia and lead to a weakening of sanctions, particularly in critical sectors like energy and finance, where Russia could regain a foothold in Western markets.  

Despite these challenges, some argue that Europe continues to hold substantial economic influence. In 2021, the EU accounted for nearly 40% of Russia’s trade, both imports and exports, far surpassing the United States, which absorbed only 3.6% of Russia’s exports and supplied just 5.9% of its imports. While the EU has already targeted over half of Russia’s imports from the bloc, including critical high-tech goods, the full impact of these sanctions on Russia’s economy is still unfolding. In addition, Europe controls essential maritime routes and holds power over key financial channels, especially through its ability to enforce the oil price cap, which still has the potential to put pressure on Russia. [7] 

However, past experience has shown that Russia is skilled at finding ways to circumvent sanctions by using third countries as middlemen. Moscow has actively searched for alternative routes to buy military technologies, often turning to countries like China, Turkey, the UAE, and Hong Kong [8]. In addition to these open channels, Russia has also used secret payment networks, often set up with the help of intelligence agencies from friendly countries like China, to quietly purchase sensitive military equipment that sanctions are meant to block [9]. At the same time, Russia has kept selling its oil through these same third countries, reducing the impact of Western sanctions [10]. So far, the combined pressure of US secondary sanctions and the coordinated efforts of Western countries to close these loopholes has helped limit Russia’s ability to fully use these workarounds, whether to buy sensitive and military goods or to sell oil.